Mackenzie Morgan – Aerospace Consultants

EBACE 2010 Impressions!

Well I am back at the day job, not that I don’t enjoy it, I do, but what were my impressions of the tenth EBACE in Geneva? Obviously having been to one before I am perfectly qualified to comment! I went out for two days this year to understand the market better, to have longer to discus with those on the stands and booths the challenges we all face and how we might be able to help them meet those challenges.

I can say that this year was much busier, as has been confirmed by the postings by EBAA; there was a significant increase in the numbers over last year! It was instantly noticeable; all the refreshment areas were much busier and much, much nosier than previously. In general the noise around the halls was very much louder than I remember from last year! There was a greater buzz while walking round the halls. There was more evidence of confidence at the end of the days, there was a larger display of entertaining from the stands, and the popping of wine bottles was all around. I am not sure that this is necessarily a forward looking step, or if this was a last grasp before the end! Following the adverse press that business aviation has had over the last 12-18 months for extravagant behaviour, perhaps the corks should have remained in!

From our point of view, there was far more pragmatic approach from some the companies we targeted, there was an acceptance this year that everything in the garden is not rosy, there will be issues with clients, aircraft will not be operated in compliance with the approved technical data, payments will not always arrive as scheduled! We are hopeful of some interesting follow-up discussions into risk mitigation and maintaining asset values.

It was clear where the emerging markets are, reading the daily rain-forest of publications, Easter Europe, the former Russian States, aka the “Stans” and Africa. The news output was supported by the range of languages and accents around the various watering holes! I hope that all this business is sustainable and we, as an industry, do not wander into another hole.

All-in-all, I feel more confident that at a similar point last year, I think that there is a more pragmatic approach; money is not as freely available as it was in the past, the easy availability of finance lead to an overheating of the market. Aircraft transactions are up, but values are down. Aircraft are moving and operational hours are rising, all positive. The market is fragile, but strengthening and so long as we do not see a double dip in the economy we should be on the up-slope.

As usual your comments are important.